Response from Dr Philip Lloyd:
Dear Frank
Thanks for your note. Debate always helps, and if I stir a little, it is to stimulate debate - as you do!
First, I must disagree with your love of diversity. Technologies become more robust as they are more widely applied, and that is particularly true in a single economy. I give you the example of France, which decided to go nuclear. It now has 58 reactors of essentially an identical design. A huge industry has been created to service this technology; about 230 000 jobs have been created; and the cost of bulk power in France is now the lowest in the world. "Spread the risk" you advise - minimising the risk in what you have may be a better option.
"The rest of the world seeks to tax carbon emissions." If you have been following the US debate, you will know the US ain't going that way any day soon. China isn't; India isn't. Some of the Europeans are going in that direction, but then, they have governments that desperately need new sources of revenue.
As regards our "dirty" act, consider for a moment that the average nation gets ~80% of its energy from fossil fuels, of which about one third comes from each of coal, oil and natural gas. We lack oil and natural gas, so instead of getting ~27% of our energy from coal, we get about 70%. That is the reason why we appear to be 'dirty' relative to our peers - in fact, we are providing our people with the most reliable and cheap power we can provide, and doing so from our own resources, which is a real merit in a developing nation such as our own.
Yes, I will grant you that in theory you can provide gigawatts of renewable power on demand - the problem is that no-one has so far succeeded, and until they do, it will have to remain a pipe dream. As for CSP plants, the costs (if NERSA is to be believed) are high, and I cannot figure out a way of paying for high cost power - and neither can NERSA. The question just gets passed around like a hot potato. Crack that one, and we will all thank you.
"Taking a lifecycle cost, the Renewables work out cheaper too." Really? Where? I can give you the US nuclear costs - they are the lowest of all the US sources of energy; or the French (which I have already quoted); and when I last looked, our Koeberg was at the bottom of the heap. A recent study on wind power found large turbines to be achieving a 4-year MTBF requiring a major overhaul - that knocks your lifecycle costs out of the window (http://www.ewec2010.info/fileadmin/ewec2010_files/documents/side_events/Reliability_PJT.pdf). Don't give me hypothetical costs - quote real life experience.
Yes, I entirely agree with you about energy efficiency. Eskom has been preaching it for years, with a definite modicum of success. Unfortunately even when there is energy efficiency, economic growth and energy consumption are very directly related, and we need economic growth, so that we are driven to supply more energy to meet the growing demand. The debate is how best to do that.
I admire your optimism, but, please, let it be tempered with just a touch of realism. I am sure that with persistence, renewables will find their rightful place - I am equally certain that, with 80% of the world's energy presently coming from fossil fuels, they will be with us for quite a while.
Best regards
Philip Lloyd
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