Tracking the Copenhagen negotiations with Arthur Chapman

From: http://www.oneworldgroup.co.za/tracking-the-copenhagen-negotiations/

Tracking the Copenhagen negotiations with Arthur Chapman

The Conference of the Parties (COP15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has just kicked off in Copenhagen. Negotiating strategies and positions of different countries appear to be clarifying already. The gist of the text below is summarised from the COP15 news website.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer says there are four essentials to the COP15 negotiations:

1. How much are the industrialised countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases?
2. How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions?
3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed?
4. How is that money going to be managed?

Large emitting nations are taking care not to commit early to any absolute reductions in carbon emissions, or are aiming to commit to reductions with as long a timeframe as possible (e.g. 2050). Developing countries are calling for large emitters (the developed countries) to make commitments for significant reductions by 2020, or pay up.

The developing, less developed and least developed countries are trying to create a strong negotiating position by trying to force the larger economies and emitters into a corner. Either commit to large reductions in CO2 to reduce the climate impact in their own countries, or put in place significant financial and technical aid so that less developed countries can adapt to the changes already occurring, is the message coming from developing and less developed countries. Clearly, countries appear to be for sale and evidence of that may be increasingly evident.

Purportedly, up to Є3 billion for the duration 2010—2012 is up for grabs by vulnerable developing countries, apparently offered by the EU in a "show of good faith". The EU is also making an offer of commitment (to reduce CO2 emissions relative to 1990) but will reveal its hand only at the end of COP15, once other countries have revealed their bids. The EU tactic apparently is to keep up the pressure on the US and China, among others, to make large commitments, or allow all to scale back their promises to cut CO2 emissions if there is no agreement. According to de Boer, the key is that the USA sign on to any agreement that comes out of Copenhagen and to do that, the US Senate has to approve the US commitments (which they did not in the Kyoto Protocol).

Meanwhile, South Africa is negotiating to reduce its emissions by 34 percent by 2020—up to 42 percent, depending on the amount of aid given South Africa. However, South Africa's undertaking is conditional upon finance, technology and technology being made available. Notably, South African electricity is mostly coal fired and new coal-based power stations are being built.

Countries are offering bids on so-called reductions. No solid reductions in CO2 have yet been promised (that will lead to a reduction in atmospheric CO2), but on offer is to become more efficient in use of carbon, the effect of which is that CO2 emissions and therefore atmospheric CO2 will keep rising—perhaps at a slower pace, for example, an emissions total about 47 billion tons (gigatons) at present would be reduced to 46 gigatons by 2020. In reality, significant cuts by 2020 are required to bring atmospheric CO2 from the current 387 ppm to 350 ppm, the "safe" level. In essence, a "slightly more efficient but business as usual" approach is the theme of discussion at COP15 now.

Unfortunately, this stance will ensure that atmospheric CO2 will keep rising for the foreseeable future, committing the world to further warming and climate change. It also means that negotiators are considering current emissions to be the carbon cap.

Some are looking to the forests and carbon trading to save the atmosphere. Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are seen as a real and achievable option and new agreements on REDD could be one of the more easily attainable agreements of COP15. REDD has a certain attraction—poorer countries maintain and grow their forests and richer ones buy the carbon credits available. Maintaining (and even increasing) the world's forests is seen as a low-hanging fruit of sequestering atmospheric carbon. Like everything else, however, there are significant hurdles, with the potential for corruption one of the very visible obstacles.

Presidents of several nations plan to appear in the final days of the negotiations to enhance the possibility of an agreement,as well as boost their own profiles amongst their supportive electorates.

Arthur Chapman is a hydrologist at OneWorld Sustainable Investments and project manager for the Southern African Regional Climate Change Programme.